Ecoscript 33

33 Hekstra. Withering Cornucopia

The prospect of a Horn of Plenty (=Cornucopia) for the year
2000 and beyond was fostered by an FAO study (Agriculture
Toward 2000). It provides that major investment in the agri-
cultural system of developing countries will be done, approp-
riate policies of the Green Revolution type (intensive inputs)
be pursued ambitiously and vigorously, a reasonable degree of
civil stability and effective administration will be reached
and environmental constraints be kept low by appropriate
technologies. A subsequent FAO-UNFPA-IIASA study in which
certain environmental constraints and national limitations are
taken into account, showed which countries will gain never
food-sufficiency. As in both studies potential climatic change
and its impact on the biosphere were not accounted for, notice
is taken of a UNEP-WMO-ICSU assessment in which global poten-
tial bioclimatic and land use changes are being foreseen,
which leaves less optimistic perspectives for the developing
countries in particular. The needed investments, as hoped for
by FAO, are finally compared with world military expenditures,
leaving even less hope for Third World food investments.


1. No rational ground for fear of hunger in the future? 1
1.1 Introduction 1
1.2 Is an ambitious strategy socially feasible? 4
1.3 Food prizes and aid 6
1.4 Environmental constraints 7
1.5 Food and agriculture beyond 2000 7
2. Country-wise gaming with ecological-technological
fixes up to 2000 10
2.1 Three levels of fixes for food selfsufficiency 10
2.2 Areas with growing and lasting food problems and
with surplus potential 13
2.3 Demographic aspects 13
2.4 Investments 14
2.5 Crop mix 14
2.6 International aid 14
3. Effects of climate change on world food production 15
3.1 Impact of global climate change 15
3.2 Shifts in cropping zones and yield 16
3.3 Improvement in climate-environment-cropping models 18
3.4 Crop genetic diversity 18
3.5 World food in the perspective of climatic change 19
4. World priorities 21
References 21